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Australia captain Pat Cummins has admitted that his participation in the first Ashes Test appears unlikely due to ongoing injury concerns.

Media speculation from Australia had suggested that Cummins might be ruled out of the whole series, though the pace bowler himself has now given a more detailed update on his situation.

Injury Timeline

The 32-year-old has been struggling with a back stress injury that has prevented his participation since his last competitive match in July.

While Cummins has restarted running training, he has yet to commence bowling as part of his recovery program.

"I wouldn't put a percentage on it, but I'd say probably more doubtful than certain," stated Cummins. "We get into begins next week, so approximately a couple of weeks away from wearing the spikes and bowling out on turf."

Fitness Requirements

Team mentor Andrew McDonald had earlier suggested that Cummins would need a minimum of four weeks of net sessions to have any chance of playing in the first Test, scheduled to begin on November 21.

Cummins supported this assessment, clarifying: "It's necessary to have at least probably a month in the nets. If you participate in a Test match, you want to ensure you're capable to bowl 20 overs in a day without concern."

Series Implications

Given the tight timeframe, there are also doubts about Cummins' availability for the following match in Brisbane on December 4.

Should Cummins be unavailable, former captain Steve Smith is likely to captain the side, with Scott Boland potentially filling the gap in the bowling attack.

Australia have retained the Ashes urn since 2018, while England are without a Test victory in Australia since 2011.

Historical Context

Cummins' current injury concerns mirror challenges from earlier in his successful career. He made his Test debut as an 18-year-old in 2011 against South Africa, becoming the youngest-ever player to take a five-for in an innings at that time.

However, his explosive debut proved to be a false dawn, as Cummins endured six years before his second Test appearance due to repeated stress fractures in his lower back.

Career Achievements

When healthy, Cummins has established himself as one of cricket's premier fast bowlers. The experienced campaigner has taken 309 Test wickets at an remarkable average of 22.10.

His record in home conditions is even more formidable, with 177 wickets at 19.92, while he has taken 91 wickets against England in just 19 matches.

In the most recent Ashes series in 2023, Cummins played in all five Tests, taking 18 wickets and establishing his value to the Australian side.

As skipper, Cummins enjoyed a successful 2023, taking six wickets in Australia's triumphant World Test Championship final and starring in their 50-over World Cup final victory against India.

He remains the only leader in Test history to win the World Test Championship, World Cup, and an Ashes series.

Team Concerns

England also face their own fitness worries with captain Ben Stokes, who has been troubled by a shoulder injury since the Test series against India.

Both teams will be monitoring their key players closely as the much-anticipated Ashes series nears.