From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro
Against the backdrop of the immense confusion surrounding the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, a single fact remains evident – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.
A Grim History and a New Escalation
The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning saw its initial significant armed assault on the continent of South America. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” the President stated.
The choice to militarily strike another state and seize its president – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.
A Nation Left in Limbo
Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other factions of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.
From Global Policeman to International Outlaw
A man who won power vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a lawless actor.
He believes that the America's power permits it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that Venezuelan oil means this most recent venture “won’t cost us a penny”.
An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty
George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.
Disregard the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.
The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims
It is widely rejected the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the promise of energy wealth as well as machismo, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as domestic popularity wanes.
World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN
The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the UN's diminishing clout.
Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.
Barely 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may come to rue the day if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.
