Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
