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Just 48 hours prior to the NYC mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange made a significant forecast – going beyond who would win overall, and block by block. The analyst, an expert in elections born and raised in the city, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and has become a kind of well-known figure this year for his thorough analyses into city data and voter surveys.

He released his extremely precise prediction map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win although failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. Lange has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal surpass the mainstream paper” in readership and the majority of electors leaned toward Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Patterns and Surprises

What was your election night?

I had to do that because they were dropping around 200,000 votes into the system frequently! I was actually a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani led the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but there were large groups of ballots added later and his lead went from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, it was possible where yesterday went kind of poorly for him, in which Cuomo was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the Democratic primary. However Mamdani added half a million supporters to his initial base, and this was critical why he won. He went out and massively expanded his base from the primary.

Coalition Building

Where did Mamdani gain additional support from?

He assembled the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the primary. Plus he further maximized his core of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He built the coalition that the left always wanted to build: multiracial, youthful, renters and residents squeezed by affordability

There were also a number of supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It is a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Islamic voters. Voters in ethnic enclaves that supported the former president previously went for Zohran now. But it’s not that he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Effects

One of the big stories of the night was the record participation. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than I had expected. I figured we might go over two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – that is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but his supporters was equally driven, and that was enough to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Currently it appears he’s favored to get over half. He’s at just over 50% but there’s still probably 200,000 votes left to report at that time. Thus I don’t think certain, but I think probable, and I hope he achieves it because afterwards none can claim Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote plummeted.

He lost any district in any borough. Not even one neighborhood in Staten Island, similar to an highly conservative area. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo held Caucasian districts, affluent zones and devout communities, and then added all of these Republicans on Staten Island with a strong turnout. I think there was significant strategic balloting by the Republicans. They were doing it prior to the former president tweeted his support for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – did backing for the candidate dominant in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed some weakening of the progressive zone in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. There, for example, the property owners and residents supported Cuomo. Thus there was a little resistance. But no, mostly the leftist base is a key factor why Mamdani won – he scored between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the election there was coverage on whether Mamdani was gaining ground with the community. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

Exist areas with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance definitely mattered in those places. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned Cuomo. And also, you have newcomers from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, they were strongly supportive. Therefore it’s unclear if there were crazy narrative-busters here, but he retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what New York means politically? Will commie corridor serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from the left hail from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I believe that there will be additional examples – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

However I think that each urban center in the US could develop their own commie corridor. Urban places are the centers of leftwing power in America – since they’re young, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the inequalities we face.