Starmer's Backers Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.
Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process
Several figures on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to avert any potential leadership challenge.
The party apparatus is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several insiders also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.
